伊核协议对油气市场的影响及伊朗投资机会分析

Impact of Iran nuclear deal on the oil and gas market and investment opportunities in Iran

2015年7月14日,美、英、法、俄、中、德六国与伊朗就解决伊核问题达成全面协议,协议中包括解除对伊朗油气生产、运输及相关金融活动制裁等内容。制裁解除将促使伊朗政府修改财税条款吸引境外投资,同时伊朗油气出口将冲击国际油气资源市场。新形势下,伊朗油气行业在早期油田开发项目、成熟油田二次采油和提高采收率项目、天然气开发项目、油气勘探项目与炼化项目上有着投资机会,但也面临财税、基础设施和地缘政治等方面的风险。中国石油企业应密切关注全面协议达成可能带来的上游、原油贸易及其他投资机会,充分认识并合理规避对伊朗投资的各类潜在风险,扎实做好长期在低油价下生产经营的准备。

The agreement concluded between Iran and the P5 ＋ 1 group of the five UN Security Council members（the US, Britain, France, Russia, and China） plus Germany will suspend or cancel the sanctions on Iran＇s oil and gas production, transportation and finance. Lifting of sanctions will encourage the Iranian government to amend tax policy to attract foreign investment, and Iran＇s resumed oil and gas exports will hit the world oil and gas market. Iran＇s oil and gas industry will pursue investment opportunities for projects in early oil field development, secondary oil recovery from mature fields, enhanced recovery, natural gas development, and oil and gas exploration and refi ning. However, they all involve risks arising from taxation, infrastructure and geopolitics. China＇s petroleum enterprises should concentrate on reaching a comprehensive agreement bringing about possible upstream, crude oil trading, and other investment opportunities, understanding and reasonably avoiding all the potential risks from investing in Iran, and being well prepared to manage production operations for a long time under low oil prices.