土耳其流管道:俄欧能源博弈新阶段

The Turkish Stream gas pipeline project: a new bone of RussianEuropean energy contention

俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司于2014年底放弃了"南流"天然气管道项目,并宣布修建通往土耳其的"土耳其流"天然气管道,作为前者的替代方案向南部欧洲供气。土耳其流管道的筹建与国际形势发展密不可分,既是俄罗斯摆脱对乌克兰能源过境依赖的要求,也是俄罗斯能源战略与外交调整的需要,同时是希腊、土耳其等沿线国家的利益需求。然而土耳其流管道也面临来自欧美的政治风险、来自欧盟的法律风险、沿线国家一票否决风险、土耳其能源战略风险等一系列挑战,其前景是否会重蹈南流管道的覆辙,抑或一再延期,仍需拭目以待。

At the end of 2014 Gazprom abandoned the South Stream gas pipeline project and announced construction of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline as an alternative route to the southern European gas market. Timing of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline is not accidental： it is a Russian effort to achieve energy transit independence from the Ukraine and to meet the needs of Russia＇s energy strategy and diplomacy, and is geared to the needs and interest of countries along the pipeline such as Greece and Turkey. However, the gas pipeline project also faces such challenges as European-American political risk, EU legal risk, the risk of veto by a country along the pipeline, and Turkish energy strategy risk. Whether the mistakes of the South Stream pipeline are repeated or the project gets postponed repeatedly remains to be seen.