在低油价环境下推动我国LNG行业持续发展

Sustaining development of China's LNG industry in a low oil price environment

2014年下半年以来,国际油价出现了大幅下跌,对国际液化天然气(LNG)市场的影响不断显现。近期,"亚洲溢价"正在消失,亚洲买家对LNG价格的心理预期也发生了变化,将以更加审慎的态度对待长期合同。低油价也会使一些规划中的LNG项目因经济性不佳而夭折,进而影响未来国际资源市场的供需平衡。虽然日本、韩国的LNG进口价格已经下跌,但其需求并未增加。在国际市场形势转向买家之时,建议国家进一步完善我国天然气利用政策,在理顺天然气发电价格机制、给予进口LNG财税政策支持的基础上,充分重视LNG在国内天然气市场中的战略性作用,把握机遇,积极利用国际资源。与此同时,要加强协调,避免短视的投机行为及过度竞争,确保我国LNG产业健康、持续发展。

International LNG prices continue to reflect the sharp oil price drop since the second half of 2014. Recently the Asia premium has disappeared as Asian buyers have changed expectation and taken a more cautious approach to long-term contracts. Low oil prices will also lead to aborting some planned LNG projects because of poor economic prospects, and thus affect the balance of supply and demand in the international market. Although the price of LNG imports to Japan and South Korea has begun to fall, demand has not increased yet. The international LNG market may be a buyer＇s market in coming years. Thus the government should set a policy of using more gas, establish a gas-power pricing mechanism, give tax policy support to the import of LNG, pay heed to the strategic role of LNG in the domestic market, seize opportunities and acquire international resources. At the same time coordination should be strengthened and myopic behavior and excessive competition avoided to ensure the domestic LNG industry develops in a healthy and sustained way.