转型时期中国银行业行政性垄断问题——基于居民存款福利损失的实证研究

The Problems of Administrative Monopoly of China Banking Industry in Transition Period——An Empirical Study on Welfare Losses of Residents Deposits

过去10年,中国银行业赚取高额利润和获得超常资本回报所依靠的主要是行政性垄断的庇护,而居民和非金融企业部门却在此过程中承受了巨大的福利损失,但目前学术界对于其中居民存款福利损失的实证研究非常有限。鉴于此,首先对中国银行业是否存在行政性垄断进行产业结构验证和制度剖析,随后基于实际利率和理论利率差额估算出2004-2012年居民和企业部门持有存款所遭受的福利损失,最后基于实证结果强调打破银行业行政性垄断的必要性和紧迫性。

Over the past ten years, China booming banking sector earned high profits and get extraordina- ry return on capital, but this primarily relying on the protection of administrative monopoly~ on the con- trary, during the process, the residents and non-financial corporate sector has suffered a huge welfare losses, but academic empirical research on welfare losses of resident deposits is very limited. In view of this, to start with, this paper tries to verify the existence of the administrative monopoly in China bank- ing industry by using industry structure verification and system analysis, then applying the difference between real interest rates and the theoretical interest rates of 2004 to 2012 to estimate the welfare los- ses of the household sector who suffered by holding deposits. Last hut not least, we use the estimation results to emphasize the necessity and significance of breaking the administrative monopoly in banking industry.