基于Matlab的概率积分法开采沉陷预计参数解算

Calculating on the Prediction Parameters of Mining Subsidence with Probability Integral Method Based on Matlab

通过在开采工作面地表建立观测站获取地表变形数据解算概率积分法开采沉陷预计参数,从而预计工作面周边或相似开采条件下工作面的开采沉陷并评估和指导开采作业,其前提是精确获取概率积分法开采沉陷预计参数。为此,基于Matlab软件,采用最小二乘法拟合观测点变形数据解算概率积分法开采沉陷预计参数,并结合Matlab软件绘图工具开发了集数据载入、坐标转换、参数解算、结果输出、开采沉陷预计及反演为一体的可视化开采沉陷预计系统。以淮南谢桥煤矿11316工作面为例,根据地表移动观测点位移数据解算开采沉陷预计参数并与实测值进行对比分析,结果表明,该系统解算出的开采沉陷预计参数符合两淮矿区开采沉陷的基本规律,反演结果与实测值基本吻合,该系统对于实现矿区开采沉陷高精度预计和反演具有一定的参考价值。

The prediction parameters of mining subsidence are calculated by the probability integral method of the surface deformation data obtained by the observation stations established on the surface of mining working face, and the mining subsid- ence of the surrounding area of mining working face or the mining working face under the similar mining conditions are predic- ted to conduct evaluation and guidance on the mining operation. Therefore, obtaining the prediction parameters of mining sub- sidence with high precision is the precondition of prediction and inversion of mining subsidence prediction. Based on Matlab software, the deformation data of observation points are fitted by the least square method to calculate the prediction parameters of mining subsidence with probability integral method. Combing with the drawing tools of Matlab software, the mining subsid- ence visualization system with the functions of data loading, coordinate transformation, calculation parameters, the output of cal- culation results,prediction and inversion of mining subsidence is developed. Taking the 11316 working face of Xieqiao coal mine, Huainan city as the research example, according to the deformation data of the observation points of the surface observa- tion stations, the prediction parameters of mining subsidence are calculated, and comparison between predicted parameters and measured parameters is conducted. The results show that the predicted parameters calculated by the mining subsidence visual- ization system is consistent with the basic rules of the mining subsidence in Huainan ＆ Huaibei mining area, and the inversion results of the mining subsidence visualization system is identical to the measured parameters. The mining subsidence visualiza- tion system can provide reference for realizing the prediction and inversion of mining subsidence with high precision.