南京农事节庆活动与旅游业发展的时空耦合研究

STUDY ON TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL COUPLING OF AGRICULTURAL FESTIVAL ACTIVITY AND DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM IN NANJING

运用耦合指数和ESDA方法,从时空维度动态分析2002—2013年南京农事节庆活动与旅游业发展的耦合状况,得到以下结论:1在年际尺度上两者存在明显正向相关关系,农事节庆活动呈现"协调发展、效益提升、快速发展、优化调整"阶段性波动特征;在季节变化上则呈现整体相似特征,3—4月和9—11月出现较明显的峰值期,但农事节庆活动表现出更强的季节性。22002—2013年农事节庆活动空间耦合差异较明显,耦合指数稳定变化的有主城区、高淳区和六合区,偏离1的有江宁区,波动变化的有溧水区和浦口区;农事节庆活动空间耦合整体存在南北方向上以主城区为中心自北向南,东西方向上由偏西部向偏东部演化的特征。最后,提出南京今后农事节庆活动与旅游业发展的建议。

Agricultural festival activity is not only an importance way to concentrated reflect the local nature and custom to attract tourist＇s attention, but also a good way to display and protect the local characteristic culture, meet the market demand of festival tourism and enhance the tourism economy. The paper, firstly, uses the tourism income, the number of agricultural festival held, the cumulative time of agricultural festival activities, the number of employees, the number of A class natural scenic area and other data to construct coupling evaluation system of agricultural festival activities and the development of the tourism industry. Secondly, based on the date of agricultural festival activity and tourism industry of Nanjing during 2002—2013,the paper uses the index of the coupling and ESDA method, from the perspective of temporal and spatial, to analyze the coupling condition of agricultural festival activity and development of tourism in Nanjing dynamically. There are two obvious peak period at the same time during March to April and September to November, but the seasonal characteristics of agricultural festival activity is more prominent. Finally, the paper puts forward several suggestions of exploring the characteristic agricultural resources, improving ability of operation and management, enhancing the degree of participation in international cooperation and exchanges actively and encouraging public participation of citizens, social capital and private enterprises to break through the bottlenecks of area resources, science and technology, transportation, capital and policy to help backward area develop fast and transform its advantages of resources, environment into advantages of economic, brand, market to attract tourists.