日本城市住宅地价的经济波动演化及其对中国的启示

Economic Volatility of Urban Residential Land Price in Japan and Its Implications to China

在城市化快速发展进程中,借鉴国外住宅用地市场演化经验对规范中国房地产市场具有重要意义。以日本城市住宅市场为例,通过分析其1970—2012年城市住宅地价与经济发展的关系,发现日本城市住宅地价在1970—1991年经济增长期高速增长,在1992—2012年经济萧条期大幅下跌,至今日本城市住宅地价的跌幅呈收窄趋势。在此基础上,通过构建其城市住宅地价指数与消费指标的关系模型,并对比中日两国城市住宅地价分析发现:日本居民消费价格指数及居民消费水平指数的年增长率对城市住宅地价指数的解释力达到72.6%;通过对比分析目前中国的城市住宅地价水平和经济发展、居民消费的关系,发现中国目前的房地产市场已经具备了日本地产下跌前的基本特征;中国房地产价格将呈持续波动趋势,短期内住宅地价将会面临下跌的风险,而未来中国房价的涨跌主要取决于国家的宏观经济走势。

Land being a resource,its price in market economy, especially the fluctuation of residential land price is directly affected by economic growth and consumer spending power. The correlation analysis on urban residential land price and economic development from 1970 to 2012 in Japan shows that Japanese urban residential/and price grew rapidly in the economic prosperity period from 1970 to 1991;it fell sharply in the recession years between 1992 and 2012, the decline of which now begins to narrow down. By building relationship model of urban residential land price index and consumption indicators from 1982 to 2012 in Japan,the research finds that annual growth rate of consumer price index and that of consumption expenditure level index has contributed to 72.6 ~ to that of urban residential land price index. Through comparative analysis of relationship among China＇s current urban residential land price levels, economic development and the consumption, we find that the current real estate market in China is similar with Japanese character before its real estate market falling. In the short term, the residential land price and real estate market in China will face the risk of falling .