农业保险与农村信贷:互动模式与绩效评价

Agricultural Insurance and Rural Credit:Interaction Modes and Performance Evaluation

农业保险与农村信贷是我国支农惠农的重要金融工具,农业保险与农村信贷的互动可以实现以农业保险赔款抵消农户信贷风险,从而促进农村信贷扩张;也可依托农村信贷扩张促进农户收入水平提高,从而推动农业保险的需求增长。因此,理论上说,农业保险与农村信贷的有效融合可以实现信贷与保险的均衡发展。为验证当前我国农业保险与农村信贷之间是否已实现互动效应,本文通过建立农业保险波动与农业贷款波动间的VAR模型研究发现:当前农业保险保费收入波动和农业贷款波动之间互为因果关系,也即农业保险和农业贷款在短期增长方面已初步实现协同发展效应,但是互动程度还需提升。建议融合农村宏观金融制度供给、银保协同机制构建和农户个体综合抗风险能力提高等举措,切实保障农业保险与农村信贷的互动与均衡发展。

Interaction of rural credit and agricultural insurance can reduce the credit risk and push the rural credit＇ development. The increase of rural credit can add farmers＇ income and then expand agricultural insurance demand. To verify whether it has achieved the development pattern of positive interaction between China＇s agricultural insurance and rural credit in the long-term trends and short-term fluctuations, statistics of our national agricultural loans, premium income and indemnity payment in agricultural insurance are collected, using HP filter to get the trend series and the volatility series, then VAR model between agricultural insurance and rural credit based on ADF tests has been got. Research gets a conclusion that the fluctuation of premium income in agricultural insurance is the granger causality of the fluctuation of agricultural loans, and the fluctuation of agricultural loans is also the granger causality of the fluctuation of premium income in agricultural insurance. That has achieved the initial synergy effect between the development of agricultural insurance and rural credit, and the extent of interaction needs to be strengthened. In the future, countermeasures need to be optimized from the perspective of macro-financial system supply, in- dustries coordination between insurance and bank, microscopic incentives and constraints of individual farmers, and so on.