基于HAQ模型的城镇居民住房支付能力研究

Research on housing affordability of urban residents based on HAQ model

文章在分析住房支付能力典型指标的基础上,从"首付+月付"的维度构建了住房支付能力象限(HAQ)模型.模型设定完全支付能力、无支付能力、收入依赖型支付能力和财富依赖型支付能力四个象限,是四种不同的住房支付能力状态.当首付能力(DPA)不小于1时,家庭储蓄能够承担住房首付;当月付能力(MPA)不小于1时,家庭剩余收入能够支付住房每月还款额;反之则存在住房支付问题.最后以中国35个大中城市为例进行了模型测算,发现2012年中国35个大中城市普遍存在不同的住房支付问题,并且表现出明显的区域差异;象限模型与房价收入比在结果上具有可比性,且象限模型从内涵上更为丰富,为中国居民住房支付理论发展,住房市场运行状态和居民住房压力评价提供了新思路.

On the basis of housing affordability classic indicators analysis, this paper constructed a housing affordability quadrants （HAQ） model. HAQ model defines four quadrants including strong payment, weak payment, income-dependent payment and deposit-dependent payment, showing four different states of housing affordability. When down payment affordability （DPA） is not less than 1, household savings can afford down payments; when monthly payment affordability （MPA） is not less than 1, residual income can afford mortgage payments; otherwise, housing affordability problems rise. Finally, model calculation is done using 35 cities in China. It is found that housing affordability problems generally exist in different types and show significant regional differences in 35 cities in 2012. Comparing with house price to income ratio, HAQ model results are comparable and show richer connotation, which is meant to provide new ideas for the development of housing affordability theory, the appraisal of housing market running state and residential housing pressure in China.