资源税改革与我国区域“资源诅咒”困境

Resource tax reform and regional "resource curse" in China

资源禀赋在支持经济增长的同时,会产生"资源诅咒"现象,即资源优势阻碍经济增长.目前研究较少考虑资源税制设计对区域"资源诅咒"的影响,缺乏资源税改革对区域演化作用深入研究.基于历年统计数据,本文研究当前我国区域"资源诅咒"分布情况,并构建动态多区域CGE模型,编制社会核算矩阵(SAM),分别以2%、5%和10%的煤炭资源税率设置模拟场景,分析资源税改革对区域社会经济、产业发展和"资源诅咒"演化的影响,并提出破解我国区域"资源诅咒"对策.研究结果表明:资源税改革可在一定程度上抑制我国区域"资源诅咒"恶化,但会使产品价格发生波动,影响宏观经济发展;同时改革会影响第二产业发展速度,尤其是抑制资源生产和加工产业增长,促进资源在各产业间合理流动,使资源消费和产业结构趋于理性,从而适度控制各区域的能源供给和需求,逐步转变各区域增长方式,协调各区域社会经济发展.

Natural resource endowment is considered to be one of the most important sources in economic growth, but while resources promote economic growth, it will cause ＂resource curse＂, where the abundance of resources has hindered economic growth. Many researchers have studied ＂resource curse＂ mechanism from the terms of trade deterioration, the ＂Dutch disease＂ or human capital investment but lack of consideration of resource tax. As we know, the resources tax is an important factor in resource development and management, but the study on interaction between the tax system and ＂resource curse＂ is less and difficult to reflect the impact on ＂resource curse＂ by tax reform. The paper first analyzes the regional distribution of China＇s ＂resource curse＂, and tries to explore the role of resource tax reform on ＂resource curse＂ in theory. On this basis, the paper builds a dynamic multi-regional CGE model, and takes coal resources as an example to further estimate the impact on China＇s social economy, industry and regional development via tax reform with 2%, 50% and 10% tax rate. The results show： resource tax reform can inhibit regional ＂resource curse＂, but will fluctuate the price and economy; meanwhile resource tax reform can affect the secondary industry （especiMly resource production industry）, and make economic structure reasonable, which can control the demand of energy in different regions improve the development style and coordinate the development of all regions. At last, the paper gives suggestions to make reference and decision-making basis for the lifting of the ＂resource curse＂.