房价上涨、多套房决策与中国城镇居民储蓄率

Rising Housing Price,Multi-suite Decision and Household Savings Rate in Urban China

本文使用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,基于内生转换回归模型,校正了样本选择偏差,实证研究了房价上涨对家庭多套房决策和城镇居民储蓄率的影响,估计了一套房和多套房家庭的反事实储蓄率以及多套房决策对储蓄率影响的平均处理效应。实证结果表明:房价上涨对多套房决策具有显著的正向影响,具有较高收入、家庭人口较多、有过拆迁经历、首套房面积较小的家庭更倾向于多套房决策;在房地产市场上行阶段,房价上涨成为推高储蓄率的重要因素之一,房价持续上涨时,人们为购房而储蓄,为偿还住房借贷而储蓄,推高了储蓄率。多套房决策对城镇居民储蓄率有显著的正向影响。对于每一个随机的城镇居民家庭,多套房决策对家庭储蓄率影响的平均处理效应为9.9%。本文的研究为本世纪前10年我国城镇居民储蓄率的显著上升提供了一个新的分析视角。

Employing China Household Finance Survey（CHFS）data, this paper empirically investigates the effects of the rising housing price on household multi-suite decision and urban household savings rate, estimates counterfactual savings rates of one-suit and multi-suite households and measures average treatment effects of multi-suite decision on urban household savings rate after correcting sample selection bias by using switching regression models. Empirical results show that the rising housing price affects multi-suite decision significantly and positively, and households with higher income, bigger family size, housing demolition experience, and smaller first-suit are more inclined to multi-suite decision. In the real estate market upward phase, the rising housing price has become one of the important factors that push up the savings rate, and has induced people to save more for buying housing and repaying housing debt. Multi-suite decision affects urban household savings rate significantly and positively. The average treatment effect of multi-suite decision on savings rate is 9.9% for a random urban household. The study of this paper provides a new interpretation perspective for the significant increase in the savings rate of urban household in China in the first ten years of this century.