中国核桃国内市场消费特征及潜力预测

Consumption Characteristics and Potential Prediction of Chinese Walnuts in Domestic Market

核桃是我国重要干果之一,近年来,随着经济的快速发展,人们生活水平逐渐提高,更加注重饮食结构的均衡营养性,核桃作为具有营养保健价值的果品,深受广大消费者的喜爱,国内市场上核桃的消费量不断上升。该研究运用产销平衡法计算出核桃消费量,分析其消费变动特征,在此基础上主要运用指数平滑法对未来我国核桃市场消费量和产量进行预测,在不考虑进口增加供给和假设我国核桃不出口的前提下,通过分析其供需缺口,得出未来年份中国核桃生产、需求缺口将从2013年的2.02万t上升到2020年的10.23万t,产需缺口仍将逐渐增大,未来我国核桃市场核桃消费潜力巨大。

Walnut is one of the most important dried fruits in China;Recent years,with the fast development of the economy,people＇s living standard has been improved and people begin to pay more attention to balance nutrition diet.As with nutrition and health care value of fruit,walnut was favored by the vast number of consumers,and the consumption of Chinese walnut kept rising in the market,whose potential consumption in domestic market would be great.This research firstly calculated the consumption of walnuts with the Production and Marketing Balance Method,and analysed the characteristics in consumption change of Chinese walnut,then predicted its consumption and production in the future market with the Exponential Smoothing Method.Assuming that regardless of the import and export of Chinese walnut,by analyzing the gap between supply and demand,we concluded that the gap between supply and demand of Chinese walnut would be growing ranging from 2.02×104 t in the year 2013 to 10.23×104 t in 2020 and it would have huge consumption potential of walnut in the future Chinese market.