中国精炼铜储备规模分析

Analysis of refined copper reserve scale in China

中国是全球第一大精炼铜消费国。本文结合中国消费历史及趋势,运用社会福利法模型对中国精炼铜储备进行了定量分析,计算得出中国精炼铜的最优储备规模为82.6天消费量,2015年最优储备量为268万t;通过敏感性分析,确定最优储备规模的主要影响因素是需求价格弹性系数和平均中断规模;结合储备收益最大化函数,分析了不同情景下中国精炼铜最优储备量,认为中国精炼铜的合理储备规模应在75~85天消费量之间,2015年储备量为244万~276万t之间。

The present research in China of martensitic heat-resistant steel,austenitic heat-resistant steel and nickel base heat-resistant alloy used for boiler and ultra-supercritical thermal power unit was summarized. Compared with nickel base heat-resistant alloy,the research for martensitic and austenite heat resistant steels is relatively sufficient. The nationalization of martensitic heat-resistant T / P91,T / P92 steel and austenitic heat resistant steel S31042,S30432 and TP347 HFG has been realized. Studies on the new 9% Cr martensitic steel were carried out. The investment and research for nickel base alloys is not enough and the research content is far from systematic,but the trend of study on nickel base alloys shows good momentum. Relatively comprehensive studies on Inconel 740,Alloy 617 and Alloy 263 have being researched by domestic scholars. Some recommendations were put forward for the research of key materials for ultra-supercritical thermal power units. Better future in China of research for heat resistant steels and alloys was prospected.