1953—2010年安康市气温变化特征分析

Characteristics of Air Temperature Change from 1953 to 2010 in Ankang City

气温变化特征是全球气候变化研究中的一个至关重要的课题,其研究对生态环境建设与保护、农业生产以及气象灾害的防灾减灾等具有重要意义。笔者以安康市为研究对象,采用1953—2010年逐日及年平均气温数据作为基础资料,运用气候倾向率、滑动平均法、M-K趋势检验和突变分析方法对安康市年均气温和各季节气温的变化特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)安康市近60年来年平均气温呈上升趋势,气温倾向率为0.05℃/10 a,并经历"暖-冷-暖"3个时期,20世纪60年代中期之前为偏暖期,60年代中期到90年代中期为偏冷期,之后为偏暖期;(2)年平均气温的年代际变化表现出"缓慢上升-显著下降-显著上升"的特征,20世纪80年代为低温期,但未出现明显的突变点;(3)安康市冬、春、秋3个季节呈增温趋势,20世纪90年代后为偏暖期,且冬春2季增温明显,秋季次之;夏季呈降温趋势,20世纪70年代中期以后降温趋势明显,进入偏冷期;(4)夏冬2季平均气温在近60年间存在明显的突变点,突变时间分别为1974年和1991年,但春秋2季气温没有出现明显的突变。总体而言,安康市近60年来冬春2季增温明显,夏季呈降温趋势,表现出"冬春变暖、夏季变凉"的特征。

Air temperature change is one of the important issues of the global climate change, it hassignificance to ecological environment construction and protection, agricultural production and meteorologicaldisaster prevention and reduction. The annual mean temperature and change characteristic of air temperatureof each season of Ankang City were analyzed by the method of climatic trend rate, sliding average method, theM-K trend test and mutation analysis method based on the data of the daily and annual average temperaturefrom 1951 to 2010. The results showed that：（1） the annual average air temperature of Ankang City in nearly 60 years showed an increasing trend with the climatic trend rate of 0.05℃/10 a, and it experienced three stages as＂warm-cold-warm＂, before the mid-1960 s was warm stage, between mid-1960 s to mid-1990 s was cold stageand then was warm stage;（2） the decadal variability of annual average temperature showed a＂gently increase-significantly decrease-significantly increase＂trend, the period of 1980 s was cold stage, but the mutation was not found;（3） the average air temperature of spring, autumn and winter showed an increase trend, it was warmstage after the 1990 s, and the change was obvious in winter and spring, followed by autumn, a decrease trendwas showed in summer, the decrease trend was obvious after mid-1990 s, which turned into cold stage;（4） theaverage air temperature of summer and winter in nearly 60 years had obvious mutations in 1974 and 1991, butthere was no obvious mutation in spring and autumn. The temperature showed a warming trend in winter andspring and a cooling trend in summer.