动态统计气候评估模式在湖北省双季稻生育期中的应用

Application of Dynamic Statistical Climate Assessment Model to Growth Period of Double Cropping Rice in Hubei Province

为了更好揭示湖北省双季稻生育期特征,定量评估气象因子对双季稻产量影响,选取双季稻产区4个代表站气象因子和产量资料,运用动态统计气候影响评估模式分析气象因素变化对产量影响效应。结果表明:早稻播种4月2日,成熟7月18日,生育期108天;晚稻播种6月20日,成熟10月22日,生育期125天。早、晚稻的生育期长度变化有所差别,江夏、监利早稻生育期长度呈延长趋势,阳新、孝感则呈缩短趋势;江夏、阳新和孝感晚稻生育期长度呈缩短趋势,监利则相反。动态统计气候评估模式评估发现受地理、水文条件影响,气温对双季稻生育期影响最大,气温、日照在双季稻关键生育期变化对产量形成有利,而降水则相反,气温升高和降水量减少有利产量形成。

The paper aims to reveal the characteristics of double cropping rice’s growth period in HubeiProvince, quantitatively assess the effects of meteorological factors on rice yield. The author took the yield dataand meteorological factors of double cropping rice of 4 representative stations in Hubei Province, analyzed therelationship between meteorological factors and double cropping rice’s yield during 1961 to 2013 by using thedynamic statistical climate assessment model. The results showed that, early rice planting date was April 2,mature date was July 18, and the growth period lasted for 108 days, while later rice planting date was June 20,mature date was October 22, and the growth period lasted for 125 days. The length of the growth period ofdouble cropping rice was different in 4 representative stations. The growth period of early rice appeared anincreasing trend in Jiangxia and Jianli station, while Jiangxin and Xiaogan showed a shortening trend. Dynamicstatistical climate assessment model showed that the air temperature had the most influence on the growthperiod of double cropping rice subjecting to geographical and hydrological conditions. Increasing airtemperature and sunlight in critical growth stage of double cropping rice was favorable to yield formation, whilemore precipitation decreased double cropping rice yield. Under the background of climate warming, higher airtemperature and less precipitation increased double cropping rice yield.