摘要
20世纪90年代以来,泰勒规则和最优控制政策一直是美联储运用联邦基金利率平衡其物价和就业双重目标所依赖的主要政策分析工具。建立在理性预期和价格粘性基础上的FRB/US宏观经济模型一方面使泰勒规则实现了在特定的损失函数条件下由简单的静态反应规则向动态跨期规则的转变,另一方面为美联储在同一模拟环境下比较由最优泰勒规则和最优控制政策给出的利率变化路径及其目标变量预测结果提供了重要的技术平台。泰勒规则曾在金融危机前近20年的稳定时期里作为联邦基金利率的操作规则为美联储货币政策的制定发挥了显著的作用,最优控制政策则是在危机之后美国经济处于长期低增长,低通胀时期而联邦基金利率又面临实际下限约束的情况下逐渐受到美联储的重视。随着美国经济逐步恢复常态以及最优控制政策的执行对各种假设性条件的依赖及其他自身具有的模型不确定性,优化的泰勒规则在政策指导上的可预测性特别是它与美联储前瞻性政策策略之间的内在一致性又开始被决策者所重新认识。本文通过论述泰勒规则特别是惯性泰勒规则和最优控制政策的不同特点以及它们各自在FRB/US模型中的稳健性表现,提出泰勒规则作为一种简单的工具规则,将和最优控制政策一起成为耶伦新常态货币政策下联邦基金利率路径的决策基准。
Since 1990's, both the Taylor Rule and Optimal Control Policy have become the major policy guidance tools of the Federal Reserve FOMC in using the federal funds rate to balance its dual mandates of the price stability and maximum employment. In the context of the large-scale Federal Reserve Board FRB/US model, which is based on the assumptions of New Keynesian rational expectations and price stickiness, the classic Taylor Rule as a simple reaction rule has been optimized into a dynamic intertemporal policy rule under a specific loss function. The FRB/US Model also provides a quantitative foundation for evaluating the robustness of the Taylor Rule and Optimal Control Policy in their respective paths for the federal funds rate and expected future target variables. This paper discusses the different characteristics of the Taylor Rule versus the Optimal Control Policy and their relative performance in the FRB/US Model simulations. It argues that the Taylor Rule, in supplementing the Optimal Control Policy, will provide the Federal Reserve with optimal paths for the federal funds rate in Yellen's new normal monetary policy for the coming years.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第9期3-15,共13页
Studies of International Finance