资本账户开放与宏观经济波动

Capital Account Liberalization and Macroeconomic Volatility

本文以Quinn指数表征资本账户开放程度,考察了资本账户开放对人均实际GDP增长率波动、人均消费增长率波动的影响。结果表明:从长期看,资本账户开放显著降低了OECD国家的人均实际GDP增长率波动和人均消费增长率波动;资本账户开放显著提高了新兴市场发展中国家的人均实际GDP增长率波动,人均消费增长率波动得到缓释。国际资本进出对新兴市场发展中国家的人均实际GDP增长率、人均消费增长率波动的影响显著高于OECD国家。消费关联之谜不成立。

We set Quinn index as a proxy of capital account liberalization to investigate the relationship among capital account liberalization, output volatility and consume volatility. Analyses show that in the long run capital account liberalization has a negative effect on out- put and consumes volatility for OECD countries. While for emerging market-development countries, capital account liberalization increases the volatility of the per capita actual GDP growth rate and reduces the per capita consumption growth rate fluctuation. Capital inflow and outflow has more effect on emerging market-development countries＇ output volatility and consume volatility in China than that of OECD countries. The consumption-correlation puzzle does not stand.