气候冲击、政府能力与中国北方农民起义(公元25—1911年)

Climate Shocks,State Capacity,and Peasant Uprisings in North China during 25-1911CE

农民起义对于中国的历史进程与王朝周期都有重要影响,但目前对于农民起义的定量研究还比较缺乏。本文首次构建了一个涵盖中国北方的王朝面板数据集,以王朝为横截面,时间跨度为公元25—1911年。研究结果表明,严重饥荒及王朝年龄都与农民起义显著正相关;而作为政府能力的代理变量,政府救灾能有效地降低农民起义的概率。负向气候冲击(比如严重旱灾、蝗灾)主要通过严重饥荒这个渠道影响农民起义。人口密度、气温及其他气候变量(比如水灾、黄河决堤、雪灾与霜冻灾害)的作用不显著或不稳健。

Peasant uprisings have had important impacts on China＇s historical process and dynastic cycles, but quantitative studies of peasant uprisings are still rare. Using a unique dynastic panel dataset for north China during 25-1911 CE, this study finds that severe famines and dynastic age were positively correlated with peasant uprisings, whereas government disaster relief as a proxy for state capacity played a significant mitigating role. Negative climate shocks （e. g. , severe drought, locust plagues） affected peasant uprisings primarily through the channel of severe famines. The effects of population density, temperature, and other climate shocks （e. g. , flood, levee breaches, snow disasters, and frost） were insignificant or not robust.