贸易开放对居民消费过度敏感性的影响机制分析

Analysis on the Influencing Mechanism of Trade Openness on Excess Sensitivity of Consumption

本文研究了贸易开放对居民消费过度敏感性的影响机制。理论分析及采用工具变量两阶段最小二乘法(TSLS)的实证研究发现,贸易开放程度对于当地居民消费过度敏感性具有倒U型影响,对于超过75%的观察点来说,贸易开放会加剧本地居民消费过度敏感性;而对于贸易开放程度更高的观察点来说,贸易开放则会降低本地居民消费过度敏感性。如果要纠正居民消费过度敏感性以提振居民消费需求进而有效扩大内需,重要的政策手段是拓展贸易开放的广度和深度:加快内陆省份开放并提升沿边省份开放以使其贸易开放程度跨过临界值,对于已跨过临界值的沿海省份则需进一步深化开放。

This paper studies how trade openness affects excess sensitivity of provincial-level consumption. By theoretical and empirical study based on provincial panel data from 1985 to 2007, we find that trade openness has inverted U-shape effect on excess sensitivity of consumption. For more than 75% of the observations, trade openness increases excess sensitivity of consumption. We also find that, for observations with higher trade openness, trade openness decreases excess sensitivity of consumption. This means that expanding the extensive and intensive margins of trade is extremely important for reducing excess sensitivity of consumption.