基于ARIMA模型的安徽省粮食产量预测研究

Predictive Research on Food Output of Anhui Province Based on the ARIMA Model

自古以来,民以食为天,粮食对于国计民生起到至关重要的作用,因此粮食产量问题一直是各国重点关注的民生问题之一。利用安徽省1949-2013年的粮食作物产量数据进行分析,通过建立ARIMA模型进行检验与预测,以期对未来几年安徽省的粮食总产有一定的了解,为有关部门制定合理的经济政策提供科学的理论支撑。

People have known since ancient times that food is human＇s god, which plays an im- portant role in the overall system of a state, so this problem has been one of the important livelihood issues. This paper analyzes food output data of Anhui Province from 1949 to 2013, and establishes the ARIMA model to test and predict the output of the next few years, in order to understand the total grain production, which will provide theoretical support for the relevant departments to formulate rational policy.