世界能源新格局与中国之对策选择

The New Global Energy Landscape and China 's Policy

2014年下半年以来,在石油供应持续增加、欧洲和亚洲市场需求下跌及美元强势回归等因素推动下,石油价格一路"跌跌不休"。当前石油价格暴跌的深层原因则在于世界能源格局正在发生的深刻变化,这些深刻变化使得当前的能源格局呈现出异于以往的新特征。就对世界经济格局的影响而言,世界能源新格局将加剧发达经济体内部和新兴经济体内部经济增长的分化,而增长的分化将引发世界经济格局的重大变迁。与此同时,世界能源新格局一方面将使中东局势愈加扑朔迷离,另一方面也迫使俄罗斯的战略重心"东移"。总体来看,世界能源格局的新变化对中国利大于弊,中国应根据自己的目标和利益,抓住机遇,及早做出战略反应和政策选择。

Since the middle of 2014,the oil price has been declining due to the interplay of the increasing supply of oil,the shrinking demand from Europe and Asia,and the return of strong dollar. The reshaping of the global energy landscape is also attributed to the shifting of global energy production and consumption centers,the structural change of energy consumption structure,and less uncertainty in predicting the fluctuation of the oil price. In terms of its impacts,the new global energy landscape will not only differentiate the developed economies,but also theemerging markets. In the meantime,it is the new trends of the global energy outlook that makes the situation in the Middle East more complicated and put Russia to shift its strategic focus eastward. As for China,it should formulate policy options based on her own strategic goals and stakes.