新世纪以来俄罗斯对朝鲜半岛的政策评析

Analysis of Russia 's Policy Towards Korea Peninsula in the New Century

朝鲜半岛存在周期性局势紧张的原因在于冷战的遗产、美韩的对朝政策,以及朝韩的竞争与对立。发展核武器是朝鲜维护政权生存的、应对朝韩力量对比失衡的重要举措,也是造成半岛局势紧张的一个因素。俄罗斯在朝鲜半岛有安全和经济等方面的利益关切,维护半岛局势的和平与稳定符合俄罗斯的利益。俄不允许朝鲜发展核武器,但却保持了相对审慎克制的态度。新世纪以来,俄罗斯以灵活务实的态度对待半岛事务:一方面,加强与韩国的经济合作,深化拓展两国关系;另一方面,继续发展与朝鲜的关系,双方关系在2014年有明显增进。但是,俄罗斯虽然希望促进北南和解进程,也能够发挥一定的调解作用,但它在朝鲜半岛的影响力和调解作用却又极其有限。

The basic reason for the periodic tension of Korea Peninsula includes heritage of the Cold War,the policy of USA and Republic of Korea(ROK),and the competition and opposition between Democratic People's Republic of Korea(DPRK) and ROK. Developing nuclear weapons is the important measure for DPRK to fight for survival of the regime and deal with power imbalance,and is one of the reasons for the intense situation of Korea Peninsula. Russia concerns security and economy interest in the Peninsula,and maintaining peace and stability is in line with Russian interests. Russia does not permit DPRK developing nuclear weapons,but it keeps relatively prudent and restraint attitude towards the issue. Since entering the new century,Russia takes a pragmatic and flexible policy in Peninsula affairs. On one hand,it strengths economic cooperation and further develops relations with ROK. On the other hand,it continues to develop relations with DPRK. The relations between Russia and DPRK improved obviously in 2014. Russia would like to promote conciliation between the North and the South. Though it could promote the conciliation,its influence and the mediation effect is very limited.