从霸权稳定论看美国的亚太再平衡战略——兼论中国的应对之策

On the United States 'Strategy of“ Asia-Pacific Rebalance ”from the View of the Hegemonic Stability Theory——Also on China's Countermeasures

霸权国的能力、意愿、合法性和霸权周期性是分析霸权国战略的四大基本要素。进入21世纪第二个十年,美国进入霸权周期的尾期,并处于实力相对衰落之中,但美国的称霸意愿依然强烈,出现实力和意愿的背离,美国霸权的合法性出现危机,美国因此表现出担忧失去霸权的焦虑,并采取相应措施。亚太地区是美国维持其全球霸权整体战略的关键一环。2011年美国提出"亚太再平衡"战略,其目的是通过在战略上限制中国和防范中国,谋求以低成本维持美国主导的亚太新秩序。中国可通过实施"五心"战略化解美国的再平衡战略,避免中美走向大国政治对抗的历史悲剧的重演。

The ability,will,and legitimacy of the hegemon and the cycle of hegemony are the four basic elements of the analysis of the hegemon's strategy. Stepping into the second decade of the 21 st century,the United States has entered the last stage of the hegemonic cycle,and is now in relative decline. But the United States still has a strong will to dominate. Therefore,the legitimacy of American hegemony is in crisis because of the discrepancy between its strength and will.The U.S. is worried about losing hegemony and has taken corresponding measures. The Asian-Pacific region is an important part of American overall strategy for maintaining its global hegemony. It put forward the'Asia-Pacific Rebalancing'Strategy in 2011,with the purpose of maintaining the U.S.-led new order in the region at low cost through strategically restraining and guarding against China. On the other hand,Chinacan neutralize America's rebalancing strategy through implementing the'Five Heart'strategy,thus avoiding the recurrence of the historical tragedy of China and the U.S. heading for political confrontation.