经济增长、外商直接投资和能源消费——基于面板数据联立方程模型的经验研究

Economic Growth,Foreign Direct Investment and Energy Consumption-An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data Simultaneous Equation Models

基于中国30个省区2001—2010年整体、高人均地区生产总值省区组、中等人均地区生产总值省区组和低人均地区生产总值省区组面板数据,使用联立方程模型实证研究经济增长、外商直接投资和能源消费之间的关系。结果发现,经济增长和外商直接投资、经济增长和能源消费、外商直接投资和能源消费之间存在较为复杂的因果关系。研究结论对于决策者制定经济政策有非常重要的参考意义。

Based on China＇s provincial panel data from 2001 to 2010, this paper studies the interrelationships between economic growth, foreign direct investment and energy consumption using simultaneous equation models. The empirical research results show that： （ 1 ） For the whole country, there are bi - directional causal relationships between economic growth and FDI, economic growth and energy consumption, and there is uni -directional causal relationship from FDI to energy consumption ; （2） For the high GDP per capita provinces, there is bi - directional causal relationship between eco-nomic growth and FDI, and there are uni - directional causal relationships from economic growth and FDI to energy consumption; （3） For the middle GDP per capita provinces, there are bi - directional causal relationships between economic growth and FDI, economic growth and energy consumption, and there is uni - directional causal relationship from FDI to energy consumption; （4） For the low GDP per capita provinces, there is bi -directional causal relationship between eco- nomic growth and FDI, and there are uni - directional causal relationships from economic growth and FDI to energy consumption. These research results have very important policy implications for policy makers.