转移支付与地方财政教育支出:激励效应及实证检验——基于协整、向量误差修正模型的分析

Intergovernmental Transfer and Local Governments' Expenditures on Education:An Empirical Test of Incentive Effects Based on Co-integration Analysis and VECMs

提供教育性公共服务是地方政府的基本职能,而转移支付的目标之一则是为地方政府基本公共服务供给提供财力保障。文章在对二者关系进行理论分析的基础上,运用协整、向量误差修正模型进行了实证检验。结论表明,转移支付对地方财政教育支出具有促进作用,人均转移支付每增长1%,人(生)均地方财政教育支出增长约1.013%。分区域的分析表明,中部地带转移支付对地方财政教育支出的影响为负,东部地带转移支付对生均地方财政教育支出的正向影响大于西部,西部地方财政教育支出占地区GDP比重的正向影响大于东部。最后,文章对可能原因进行了说明,并提出了相关政策建议。

To provide public education service is a basic function of local governments, and the main goal of inter-government transfer is to provide financial security for local governments to provide public services. After theoretical analysis of the relationship between government transfer and local government education expenditures, this paper conducted an empirical investigation employing co-integration and VECMs methods. The results show that, intergovernmental transfers facilitate local public education expenditures in China. Specifically, 1% increase in per capita intergovernmental transfers, will lead to 1.013% increase in per capita local public education expenditures. Given the sub areas, intergovernmental transfers in the middle regions have a negative effect on local public education expenditures; while in the eastern and western regions, payment transfers are positively correlated with local governments＇ public education expenditure. However, government transfers in the east have more positive effects on the increase in per capita local public education expenditures than in the west; and that in the west have more positive effects on the increase in the proportion of public education expenditure to local GDP than in the east. Possible explanation of the results and relevant suggestions for policy making are also offered in the last part of this article.