公共场所突发事件情境下受灾人群间信息的传播与扩散研究

The Research of Information Dissemination and Diffusion Between the Affected People in the Scenario of Public Places Emergencies

针对公共场所突发事件情境下受灾人群间信息传播与扩散的特征,定义一种受灾人群间信息传播与扩散的微分过程.根据公共场所突发事件情境下信息的多元性,将信息分为消极信息和积极信息,基于Gilpin-Ayala扩散模型,建立一种基于公共场所突发事件情境下的受灾人群间信息传播与扩散模型,并对模型的动态过程进行分析,提出并证明了最佳安全疏散汇集点定理.利用定理的结论,分析突发信息传播扩散可能出现的情况,进一步分析信息传播与扩散对受灾人群的影响.最后通过算例计算分析,验证了理论的正确性和有效性,并根据计算结果给出了几点政策建议.

This thesis focuses on the characteristics of information-dissemination and dif- fusion in the scenario of public places major emergencies, defines a differential process of information dissemination and diffusion between the affected people. According to the di- versity of information in the scenario of public places major emergencies, the information are divided into negative and positive information. And based on Gilpin-Ayala diffusion model~ the information dissemination and diffusion model is established between the affected people in the scenario of public places major emergencies, and the dynamic process of the model is analyzed, proposed and proved the best safety evacuation collection point theorem. With the conclusion of the theorem, analysis of emergency information dissemination may occur, further analysis of the impact of information dissemination and diffusion between the af- fected people. Finally, the thesis verified the correctness and validity of the theory by the calculation and analysis of a numerical example, and several policy suggestions are given according to the calculation results.