基于适度水平的辽宁省社会保障财政支付能力测度研究

The Analysis of the Social Security Finance Payment Ability of Liaoning Province Based on the Perspective of the Moderate level

社会保障财政支付能力是社会保障制度可持续发展的关键.依据辽宁省经济数据,运用社会保障适度水平理论,系统预测了辽宁省未来十年的社会保障财政支付能力.主要结论为:在高、中、低三种情境下,辽宁省社会保障财政支付能力分别处于较强、适中和较弱三种状态.但在低、中、高三种情景下,辽宁省的社会保障财政支出并未处于适度水平状态,辽宁省未来十年都存在一定的社会保障财政支出适度缺口,且呈现不断扩大趋势.因此,提高社会保障财政支出水平的要求必然增加了辽宁省未来社会保障财政支付能力的压力,这需要从社会保障财政供给和需求两方面着手加以应对.

The social security finance payment ability is the key to the sustainable devel- opment of social security system. This paper predicts the social security finance payment ability of Liaoning province in the future ten years using the moderate social security level theory based on the economic data of Liaoning Province. The main conclusion is： in the three different contexts including high, medium, low, the social security finance payment ability of Liaoning province is respectively strong, moderate and weak. But in the context of low, medium, high, the social security expenditure of Liaoning province is not in a moderate level state, there is some moderately gap of social security expenditure in the future ten years, and shows the growing trend. Therefore, the requirement of improving the level of social security expenditure is inevitable to increase the pressure of social security finance payment ability in Liaoning Province in the future, so we need to consider from two aspects of the supply and demand of social security finance to deal with these problems.