基于新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的中国煤炭消费量预测分析

Application of an Information Renewal GM(1,1) Model Predicting in Coal Consumption Forecast of China

运用灰色系统理论,以中国2002-2012年的中国煤炭消费量建立了GM(1,1)和新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型.使用相对误差和残差平方和对两个模型的精度进行检验,对比表明,新陈代谢模型精度高于常规的GM(1,1)模型.使用平均弱化缓冲算子来表示能源政策对煤炭消费量的冲击,应用处理后的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对2015-2017年的煤炭消费量进行了预测.

This paper establishes an ordinary GM （1, 1） model and information renewal GM （1,1） predicting model on the grey theory, using the data drawn from the 2002-2012 coal consumption of China. Relative errorand residual sum of squares were used to testits accuracy of the model. The comparison implies that the information renewal GM （1,1） model is superior to the ordinary GM （1,1） model because of its higher accuracy. The average weakening buffer operator represents the impact energy policy on coal consumption. The information renewal GM （1, 1） model is applied to the predicting of 2015-2017coal consumption of China.