能源消费基数增加后实现2020年非化石能源占比15%目标分析

Analysis of Non-fossil Energy Proportion Target in 2020 Based on Energy Consumption Statistics

近期中国对2014年能源消费总量统计数据进行了修正和调整。分析了能源消费基数增加后实现2020年非化石能源占比15%目标的有关问题。研究表明,基数调整情况下2020年能源消费量预计超过48亿t,完成目标存在较大难度。可行的解决途径一是加大节能减排力度进一步压减能源消费总量,二是扩大风电、太阳能发电开发规模,通过跨区主送新能源的方式提高利用水平。配合新能源消纳的调峰电源布局在受端效益更优。

Recently. the statistic data of China＇s total energy consumption for 2014 were amended and adjusled. The proportion target of non-fossil energy is analyzed, which is aimed to increase to 15% in 2020 according to the energy consumption statistics. The research resnh shows that the adjustment of the energy consumption base may cause the total expected energy consumption to exceed 4.8 billion tons in 2020, which will make it difficult to realize the target of 15%. However, there are several feasible solutions. One solution is to increase the energy-saving ability for further decreasing the total energy consumption; The second solution is to expand the development of wind power, solar power, and construct trans-region transmission lines for transmitting new energy to improve the consumptinn ability. It is more effective to arrange the peak-load power stations in the power＇ reception area to coordinate the new energy consumption.