节能减排背景下的内蒙古高耗能行业用电需求研究

Research on the Electricity Demand for Energy-intensive Industries in Inner Mongolia under the Energy Conservation Background

近年来,高耗能行业成为中国节能减排工作的重点.高耗能行业用电对全社会用电形势有着非常重要的影响.为预测内蒙古高耗能行业未来用电需求状况,利用索洛模型和协整理论建立了高耗能行业电力需求与行业产值及其占全社会总产值比重、电耗强度之间的长期均衡模型,在此基础上结合国家及内蒙古自治区节能减排相关政策,分情景对内蒙古高耗能行业电力需求进行了预测.结果表明,内蒙古高耗能行业用电需求在2013-2020年将以8.06％的年增速增长,2015年和2020年行业用电量将分别达到2 016-2 134亿kW·h和2 672-2 946亿kW·h.若实现高耗能行业的绿色可持续发展,内蒙古应加快淘汰落后产能并加大绿色技术的开发与应用.

To predict the future electricity demand of Inner Mongolia high energy consuming industries, the Solow model and cointegration theory are used to establish the long-term equilibrium model among the electricity demand of high energy consuming industries, its output, its share of the total output value of the whole society and the power consumption intensity. Additionally, the policy related to energy saving and emission reduction of the state and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region are also taken into consideration. The results showed that the electricity demand of Inner Mongolia high energy consuming industries will be8.06% annual growth rate during 2013-2020, in 2015 and 2020 the electricity consumption of high energy consuming industries will reach 2 016-2 134billion kW.h and 2 672-2 946 billion kw. h. If we can achieve the green and sustainable development of high energy consuming industries, Inner Mongolia should accelerate the elimination of backward production and attach importance to the exploitation and application of green technology.