国际行业减排规则的发展及对中国的影响

The Development of International Sector-based Mitigation Rules and the Potential Impact on China

联合国气候大会是全球气候谈判的主要平台。然而,主要发达国家已试图绕开这一具有广泛代表性的机制,在行业层面推进国际减排规则的发展,具体行动可以分为两个方面。一是凭借自身在跨国供应链中的优势地位,通过影响供应商而实施的市场驱动的行业减排规则建设行动;二是通过国际海事组织和国际民航组织,针对国际海运和民航业实施的政府主导的行业减排规则建设行动。本文首先分析以《联合国气候变化框架公约》和相关协议为基础的联合国气候大会谈判框架对发达国家的约束。随后具体追踪发达国家的跨国公司、非政府组织和政府机构在国际行业减排领域所采取的行动,并从减排路径设置和贸易壁垒两个角度,探讨发达国家的行为给中国带来的潜在挑战。最后探讨国际行业减排机制与现有全球气候变化治理体系之间的互动,以及中国可以采取的多方面应对措施。

The United Nations Climate Conference is the major platform for global climate negotiations. However, major developed countries attempt to circumscribe this widely-representative mechanism, and develop international sector-based mitigation rules. Specifically, developed countries' actions can be approached from two aspects. One is the 'market-driven, sector-based, rule-developing activities,' which rely on the advantageous positions of developed countries in transnationalsupply chains. The other is the 'government-led, sector-based, rule-developing activities,' which have been implemented via the International Maritime Organization and the International Civil Aviation Organization, focusing on international shipping and civil aviation. This article begins by analyzing the constraints that the UN Climate Conference, which is based on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its protocols, has imposed on developed countries. Then it traces in detail the activities of multinational corporations, non-governmental organizations, and governmental agencies in developed countries. The potential impact that developed countries' actions might have on China are analyzed from two angles: mitigation path setting and barriers to trade. It concludes by briefly discussing the interactions between the development of international sector-based mitigation rules and the current global climate regime, and the measures that China could take to address the challenges.