中美印不对称三角关系的“信任-权力”分析

Trust and Power:On the Asymmetric, Strategic Sino-India-U.S. Triangle

当前的"中美印三角"形成于美国单极独霸的权力格局中,构成一个典型的"不对称三角"。三个实力不对称的大国为何没有生成任何联盟,而构成相互掣肘的三角关系?信任—权力的分析模型主张将客观实力差距放置在主观信任的架构中去理解。中美基于支配权力下的理性信任关系,形成"胁迫—应付"互动结构;美印则是"支配权力下的感性信任"占主导,属于"笼络—防范"关系;中印关系是"吸引—观望"关系,即"关系权力下的理性信任"占主导。这三种关系均倾向于非联盟策略,由此构成了三角格局的基础。当然,随着"实力"与"信任"两大变量的变化,中美印"不对称三角"有三类前景:二对一格局、枢纽格局及三国集团。但是,基于三方实力与信任的不匹配,以及第三方因素的制约,三者最有可能保持既"非零和"互动且不结盟的微妙平衡,不对称三角博弈将是中美印三边关系在中短期内的常态。

The current 'strategic triangle' of China, the United States, and India was born under the U.S. unipolar hegemonic shadow, which is a typical asymmetric triangle. Why the three asymmetric great powers make a three-way relationship instead of forming an alliance? This paper puts forward the trust-power analysis framework, advocating that objective power gap should be placed in a subjective trust framework to interpreted the trilateral relations. Generally speaking, the current Sino-U.S. relationship is a 'coercion-response' dynamic, i.e., a relationship characterized by rational trust under predominant power; the relationship between America and India is 'wooing-prevention' relationship, which means 'domination with strong emotional trust'; and the Sino-Indian interaction is a 'co-option-bandwagon' dynamic, namely a relationship of 'rational trust under relational power.' With the change of 'power' and 'trust,' the Sino-India-U.S. 'asymmetric triangle' will face three scenarios: 'Two vs. One' pattern, 'Hub' pattern, and 'Group-3' pattern. However, the three players are most likely to maintain a delicate balance between friend and foe, and the asymmetric triangle game will also be the new normal for the Sino-India-U.S. strategic relationship.