药物经济学评价Markov模型实例解析

Instance analysis of Markov model for pharmacoeconomics evaluation

目的:本文旨在对已建立的Markov模型进行解析,为中国胃癌治疗方案的药物经济学研究奠定基础。方法:深入分析Markov模型建立的理由和方法。结果:胃癌治疗后的自然转归符合Markov基本原理,可划分为三种互不相容的生存状态,合理假设可简化Markov模型,转移概率是Markov模型是否正确的关键。结论:对中国胃癌患者两种治疗方案进行药物经济学评价,可采用划分3种互不相容健康状态,使用TreeAge软件创建Markov模型,利用公开发表的大型Ⅲ期临床试验结果,结合WHO生命表数据确定转移概率,以此创建切实可行的Markov模型。

OBJECTIVE To analyze the established Markov model instances and provide a research foundation of pharmaco economics for therapeutic regimen of stomach cancer in China. METHODS Based on reasons and methods of built models, a detailed explanation was given＋ RESULTS Basic principle of Markov model was fitted by natural outcome after treatment a- gainst gastric cancer. Three incompatible states of survival could be divided for gastric cancer patients. Reasonable assumptions could simplify Markov model. Transition probabilities were keys of valid Markov model. CONCLUSION For pharmacoeconom- ic evaluation of two remedies for Chinese gastric cancer patients, three incompatible health states can be used. A perfect Mark ov model can be established by software TreeAge, using published phase [lI of clinical trial results and calculating transition probabilities partly from WHO life table.