基于CBDT的新产品开发项目风险应对方案选择方法

Methods for Selecting NPD Project Risk Response Alternatives Using Case-Based Decision Theory

如何选择新产品开发项目风险应对方案是项目风险管理的一个重要研究问题。本文针对新产品开发项目风险应对的实际要求,基于案例的决策理论(CBDT)的思想,给出了一种新产品开发项目风险应对方案选择方法。在该方法中,首先分别计算针对项目描述、风险描述、风险应对方案描述的目标案例与历史案例间的相似度并进行相似历史案例的提取,进一步地,计算相似历史案例的方案实施效果的效用值;然后通过集结综合相似度和效用值来得到每个备选风险应对方案的综合效用值,进而依据综合效用值的大小来选择最优的方案。最后,通过一个算例说明了本文给出方法的可行性与实用性。

New product development （NPD） is an important means of achieving competitive advantage for enterprises in the rapidly changing market. NPD activity is complex and uncertain because it involves many risk factors. Thus, many companies emphasize on the importance of NPD project risk management by specifically addressing the problem of how to select a desirable NPD project risk response alternative. Most of the existing methods for selecting NPD project risk response alternative are to address single risk. These methods are usually based on the subjective prediction results with regard to the implementation effect of risk response alternative. However, there are multiple risks in NPD project risk management. In addition, the occurrence and the influence of these risks tend to have a great level of uncertainty. Hence, there is a need to do further in-depth research on practicable method for selecting NPD project risk response alternative. Some research results show that such complex decision problems can be solved by extracting and analyzing the historical casesCase-based decision theory （CBDT） is the most commonly adopted theory to address these problems. Therefore, it is important to understand how to select a desirable NPD project risk response alternative based on the similar historical cases. This paper develops a method for selecting NPD project risk response alternative using CBDT. The basic idea of our proposed method is to firstly retrieve the similar historical cases after calculating the degrae of similarity between the target ease and the historical ease. Secondly, for each alternative used in the similar historical case, the utility of alternative implementation effect is calculated. The calculation treats the similarity as the weight or the degree of importance. This treatment enables us to calculate the overall utility of each risk response alternative by integrating the similarities and utilities. Moreover, desirable alternative can be determined according to the obtained overall utilities. The proposed method contains five parts： 1） separate calculation of the similarities between the target case and the historical case with regard to project description, risk description and risk response alternative description, 2） building of the similar historical case set, 3） calculation of the overall similarity between the target case and the historical case, 4） calculation of the utility of alternative implementation effect, and 5） calculation of the overall utility of each risk response alternative and determination of the desirable alternative. Steel Company A wants to determine the desirable NPD project risk response alternative in its high-grade marine steel plate development project. We used this case to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method. The proposed method improves the existing research methods to effectively solve the NPD project risk response alternative selecting problems. This paper provides a new feasible decision-making method to solve NPD project risk response alternative decision problems.