不同经济条件下油价与石油供应量变化分析

An Analysis of Changes in Oil Prices and Crude Oil Supply Volumes under Different Economic Conditions

通过对国际石油价格与世界、OPEC、OECD、北美和中国这几类有代表性的石油供应区域进行定性分析,运用单位根检验、协整检验、VECM、格兰杰分析等计量经济方法,研究得出经济增长期、衰退期和经济平稳期几类石油供应量与油价之间长期与短期关系。从长期来看,不同经济条件下油价与几类石油供应区域的石油供应存在长期协整关系;从短期来看,油价是石油供应量的因;不同经济背景下的世界石油供应量对油价预测均方误差的解释比例约为13%左右,油价波动更多地取决于其他因素。建立了我国油价与石油供应联立方程,发现在经济衰退期,石油企业重组对我国石油产量有负向影响;金融危机、战争等因素几乎未对我国石油产量造成影响,说明我国石油供应策略并未考虑国际环境变化,并得出我国石油供应量与油价均衡点为(3727.98kbbl/d,57.37美元/bbl)。最后给出了经济高涨期、低迷期和平稳期三种条件下我国应制定的相应油价供应策略。

This article conducts a qualitative analysis of international crude oil prices and representative oil supply areas such as OPEC,OECD,North America and China.Using per root test,co-integration test,VECM and Granger analysis methods,the article concludes that both long-term and short-term relationships between oil supplies and oil prices are different in economic growth periods,economic recession periods and normal e- conomic conditions.In the long term,oil prices under different economic conditions are in a long-term co-in- tegration relationship with crude oil supplies in the above oil supply areas;in the short term ,oil price is the factor affecting crude oil supply;and under different economic backgrounds,the world＇s oil supply accounts for about 13% of the interpretation of the mean square error of oil price forecast,meaning that oil price fluctua- tions are more due to other factors.Researchers developed a simultaneous equation for oil prices and crude oil supply in China and discovered that in a recession ,restructuring of oil companies has a negative influ- ence on the country＇s oil production.They also found that other factors such as financial crisis and war al- most had no effect on China＇s oil output,suggesting that China did not consider changes in international set- tings when formulating its oil supply strategy.According to the article,the equilibrium points between China＇s oil supply and oil prices are 3727.98kbbl/d and 57.37 US dollars/bbl.At the end,the article proposes the oil supply strategies that China should adopt in a rapid economic growth period,an economic recession and a stable economic growth period.