基于物联网的公路交通运行状态评估与预测

Estimate and Prediction of Traffic State on Expressway under Internet of Things

交通事故与交通运行异常状态在公路上经常发生,对上游路段和相邻国省道带来严重的影响。通常,针对此类情况提前制定具有针对性的预案难度很大。如何在复杂路网环境下快速监测异常交通运行状态的发生并预测交通事件的影响范围,成为公路应急处置管理的基础。提出基于物联网技术对交通运行状态信息、气象条件、路面状况以及结构物状态的广泛感知,用于实时、快速监测公路异常事件的发生并预测复杂路网环境下交通事件发生后未来短时的交通拥堵发展态势的预测方法。该方法充分考虑了交通流、气象、路面条件以及结构物状态对交通事件下公路通行状态的影响。基于该方法,开发了公路网交通运行状态预测系统,通过实际数据的测试,该预测方法具有良好的监测与预测能力。因此,本文提出的技术可以很好地为公路应急处置提供快速、科学的决策支持,为公路运营管理提供服务。

Traffic accidents and abnormal incidents happen frequently on expressways, which bring severe impact on upstream road sections and neighboring national highways, and generally it is hard to make pre-arranged planning. How to quickly monitor the abnormal traffic situations and predict the affected area become the basis of expressway emergency response and management. In this paper, the method combining Internet of Things and simulation model is proposed for on-line forecasting short-term propagation of incident on expressway. The method fully considers the impact of traffic flow, meteorology, road surface and structures conditions on traveling situations under accident events. Based on this method, highway network traffic operating situations forecasting system is developed. The experiment data shows that this method proposed in this paper has good monitoring and forecasting ability. Hence the method can provide rapid and scientific support for decision making for highway emergency and for highway operations and management.