养殖规模化对平缓生猪价格周期效应的中美比较与现实启示

Comparison and implications of the impacts from scale production of hogs on stabilizing hog prices in the US and China

我国生猪养殖规模普遍偏小,行业集中度低,生猪价格呈现明显的周期性波动。影响生猪价格周期的因素很多,养殖规模化是因素之一。本文从养殖规模化的角度,通过分析我国生猪价格周期情况以及美国三十多年生猪养殖规模化进程表明,养殖规模化程度与生猪价格周期逐渐拉长、价格最大波幅收窄趋势一致,在一定程度起到了稳定器的作用。从规模化程度、驱动因素、规模效应及政策效应四个方面比较分析了中美养殖规模化对生猪价格周期影响的差异性,认为我国以散养户和小户养殖场为主的养殖结构、我国养殖行业自上而下的驱动因素、养殖技术水平相对较低以及补贴政策方式的不同是导致中美差异性的原因。同时,结合我国实际情况,提出了完善养殖规模化整体规划、行业转型升级、推出生猪期货、加大金融支持力度、鼓励生猪产业链整合等政策建议来发展我国规模化养殖,达到平缓生猪价格周期的目的。

H og production scale is sm all w ith low degree of concentration and significant cyclical price fluctuations in C hina. Scale production is one of the factors affecting the hog price am ong the m any of other factors. From the perspective of large-scale farm ing, this paper analyzed the C hinese hog price cycle and the scale production process in the U S over the last thirty years. R esults show that the degree of scale production, the prolonged hog price cycles and narrow price volatility play a role of stabilizer to som e extent.B y com paring the difference betw een C hina and the U S in the influence on the hog price cycle by the scale production from four aspects, including the scale degree, the driving factors, the scale effect, and the policy effect, this paper found that the causes for the difference betw een the tw o countries are：the farm ing structure ofbackyard production and sm allfam ily farm production in C hina,top-dow n driving factorsofChina＆#39;shogindustry,therelativelylow leveloftechnologyandfarmingsubsidydifferences.Inordertodevelop our large scale production and achieve the target of easing the hog price fluctuation cycle, this paper suggests：1） T o im prove the strategic planning for large scale production;2） T o upgrade the structure of the industry;3） T o encourage farm ers to use hog futures and options;A nd 4） to increase financial support and to encourage the integration of the hog industry chain.