三峡库区经济可持续发展的生态压力分析及预测——基于灰色预测模型

Analysis and Prediction on Ecological Pressure of Economic Sustainable Development in Three Gorges Reservoir Area:Based on Grey Prediction model

根据"生态足迹"理论,计算了2005—2013年中国三峡库区的生态压力指数。据此建立灰色预测模型,运用灰色预测模型预测了2014—2022年三峡库区的生态压力指数。结果表明:三峡库区的生态压力指数基本上呈逐年递增态势,说明其经济的可持续发展整体上呈不断恶化趋势。最后提出促进三峡库区经济可持续发展的建议。

Based on the theory of ecological footprint,this paper calculates the ecological pressure index of Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 2005 to 2013. According to the calculation result ,it establishes the grey prediction model to predict the ecological pressure index of Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 2014 to 2022. The results show that the ecological pressure index of Three Gorges Reservoir Area takes on an increasing tendency year by year. Finally,it puts forward the corresponding suggestions for the economic sustainable development of Three Gorges Reservoir Area.