薄层特超稠油油藏双水平井SAGD开发指标预测模型

Predictive models of dual horizontal well SAGD for thin formation and super heavy oil reservoirs

指出蒸汽辅助重力泄油(steam assisted gravity drainage,SAGD)开发技术具有采收率较高、投资多和风险大的特点,适用于油层较厚、原油黏度非常大及常规热采开发方式无法经济有效开发的稠油油藏.本研究采用数值模拟和经济评价方法,结合影响因素对SAGD开发效果的影响,建立各影响因素与开发效果的单因素定量关系;并利用多元非线性回归方法,建立SAGD采收率在不同油价下内部收益率与影响因素之间的多因素预测模型.研究结果表明,油层厚度、地层原油黏度、平面渗透率、垂向渗透率和初始含油饱和度是影响SAGD开发效果的主要因素;该预测模型能够适应国际油价变化,而且,通过国外SAGD典型区块实例验证具有较强的实用性和油藏适应性.

Steam assisted gravity drainage （SAGD） technology, with the problems of large investment and high risks, despite higher recovery compared with other technologies, is more applicable to heavy oil reservoirs with thicker formation and larger oil viscosity, which common thermal methods are difficult to deal with. This paper investigates the effects of influential factors on SAGD development and introduces quantitative models between each influential factor and development index. The multiple factors regression predictive models are established to predict the SAGD oil efficiency and the internal rate of return under different oil prices. The results exhibit effects of different influencial factors including formation thickness, formation oil viscosity, plane permeability, vertical permeability and initial oil saturation, on the efficiency of SAGD. The proposed predictive models can be compatible with effects of international oil price variation. The models have been applied to a typical field of SAGD abroad to verify the applicability and accuracy of the models in engineering.