资源型区域能源消费预测模型的构建与应用

Research on the Construction and Implementation of Prediction Models of Energy Consumption in Resource-based Regions

能源消费预测是制定能源结构调整政策的基础。根据中西部资源型省份1998-2013年能源消费历史数据,结合GM(1,1)模型、Verhulst模型和SCGM(1,1)c模型构建能源消费组合灰色预测模型,按照预测有效度方法取得组合预测模型的权重系数。选用1998-2010年资源型区域能源消费实际值作为原始数据,利用各预测模型预测2011-2013年能源消费量。预测结果表明,组合灰色预测模型比单一预测模型具有更高的预测精度。验证组合灰色预测模型可行性的基础上,进一步预测资源型区域2014-2018年能源消费量,为相关部门制定能源结构调整政策提供理论及方法借鉴。

The energy structure adjustment policies to be formulated needs to predict energy consumption. Combination of grey forecast model was build according to GM （1, 1） model, Verhulst model and SCGM （1, 1） c model, and central and western resource-based provinces of energy consumption were analyzed from 1998 to 2013. The weight coefficient of each forecast model was calculated by the predicting effective method. Energy consumption was predicted from 2011 to 2013 by each forecast model according to the real value of regional energy consumption. Results show that the combined grey prediction model has higher precision of prediction than the single forecasting model. Then resource-based regional energy consumptions were predicted on the basis of the feasibility of combined grey forecasting model is validated. This method can be provided theory and method of using for reference to related departments to develop energy structural adjustment policies.