辽宁省保险业发展促进经济增长的实证探究

An Empirical Study on the Development of Insurance Industry in Liaoning Province to Promote Economic Growth

依托辽宁省保险业发展与经济增长的数据,以居民消费水平为切入点进行实证探究。研究发现:在长期的情况下,保险业发展(用保险密度衡量)和经济增长(用社会消费品零售总额衡量)之间存在正相关,当社会消费品零售总额每变动1个单位,保险密度增加0.128066个单位,而当保险密度每增加1个单位,社会消费品零售总额增加7.808473个单位;而格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明,滞后2期和滞后5期表明保险业发展是社会消费品零售总额的格兰杰原因,两者之间是单向因果关系且结果稳定。在此基础上提出相应的政策建议。

The thesis take the consumption path as the breakthrough point to carry on the empirical research based on the data of insurance industry development and economic growth in Liaoning Province. It is found that there is a positive correlation between the development of insurance industry （insurance density） and the total retail sales of social consumer goods. When the total retail sales of social consumer goods is flow one unit, the density of insurance is increased by 0.128066 unit, and when the insurance density increase the one unit, the total retail sales of social consumer goods is increased by 7.808473 units; And the results of Granger＇s causality test showed that the 2 periods of lag and the 5 periods of lag showed that the development of the insurance industry was the Granger reason for the total retail sales of social consumer goods. It is the one-way causal relationship between them and the results are stable. So recommend the corresponding policy based on the result.