政府税收税率和通货膨胀率关系的理论和实证研究——对Mankiw Principle的理论修正及在中国的实证检验

A Theoretical and Empirical Study on Government Tax Rates and Inflation Rate:Mankiw Principle in China

本文理论研究认为在典型代理人效用最大化和无限期的政府预算约束的条件下,税率和通货膨胀率不仅存在正相关关系,也存在负相关的可能。同样在政府财政目标损失函数最小化和无限期的政府预算约束的条件下,税率和通货膨胀率不仅存在正相关关系,也存在负相关关系,这不同于"曼昆原则"的分析。本文GMM实证结果显示,政府税率与通货膨胀率呈正相关关系,政府支出对政府税率的影响为正,政府支出对政府税率与通货膨胀率斜率的影响为正,而资源禀赋对政府税率与通货膨胀率的斜率影响为负。从VAR模型的脉冲反应函数来看,政府税率与通货膨胀率也呈正相关关系,政府支出对政府税率与通货膨胀率斜率的影响为正,资源禀赋对政府税率与通货膨胀率的斜率影响为负,与GMM分析的结论一致。

The paper theoretically indicates that under the conditions of a representative agent utility maximiza- tion and the government indefinite budget constraints, the tax rate and the inflation rate is not only a positive correlation, negative correlation may also exist. At the same time under the government＇s fiscal target cost func- tion minimization and the government indefinite budgetary constraints, there is not only a positive correlation, but also a negative correlation, which is different from ＂Mankiw principle＂ analysis. Based on the sample data from 1952 to 2013, the GMM empirical results display that the tax rate and the inflation rate is positively relat- ed, but the effects on government tax are positive by the government spending, the effects of the government spending are positive on the slope of the government tax and the inflation rate, and negative are the effects of the resources endowment on the slope. From the impulse response functions of the VAR model, there also shows a positive correlation between the tax rates and the inflation rate, the impact of the government expenditure is pos- itive on the slope of the tax rate and the inflation rate, the resource endowment influences the slope negatively, which are consistent with the conclusions of GMM analysis.