政府债务规模与地方财政风险防范:以宁波市公债危局为例

Government Debt Scale Versus Local Fiscal Risk: On the Case of Ningbo Debt Crisis

近年来,我国地方政府的债务规模快速扩张、债务风险不断积聚,日渐引发社会各界的广泛关注。笔者首先对地方政府债务相关理论进行文献回顾;其次以宁波市公债危局为例,尝试采用定性与定量相结合的方法,对宁波市政府债务规模与财政风险进行分析。笔者发现,宁波市政府的偿债率和债务负担率逐年上升,已超过警戒线水平,加之财政收入来源单一、金额有限,故逐渐陷入债务危局。最后,笔者基于案例研究结论,针对地方政府的债务融资规模与风险防控提出相关政策建议,希冀能裨益于地方政府债务危局的破解。

The lating risk and a lot local government debt has of social concerns. Firstly, been surging in recent years in China, leading to the accumuthe author reviews theory of local government debt. Secondly, the author chooses Ningbo City as a case study, try to analysis the risk of local government debt by using the combination of both qualitative and ,quantitative methodologies. It has found that the Ningbo city government debt service ratio and the debt burden increase year by year, which has exceeded the warning line level, couple with the limited funds, the government gradualy get into a critical situation. Finally, the author propose the direction and measures for the future reform of local government debt on debt size and risk management, which has theoretical and practical significance