论青藏高原温度对长江中下游地区降水的影响

The impact of Tibetan Plateau temperature on the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River

文章利用1980～2009年间NCEP／NCAR的月温度场和高度场的再分析资料，以及中国160个站逐月夏季降水资料，探讨了青藏高原在不同高度和不同季节的温度差异对长江中下游地区夏季降水的影响。通过相关分析发现，青藏高原冬季的平均温度与长江中下游地区夏季降水之间存在负相关；春季平均温度与夏季降水之间南部地区存在负相关，北部地区存在正相关。另外还发现，青藏高原冬季温度相关度比春季明显的多，因此文章分析了青藏高原冬季温度与长江中下游地区夏季降水之间可能存在的关系。结果表明，青藏高原当年冬季偏暖（冷）时，对应的第二年夏季位势高度场上西太平洋副热带高压位置偏北（南），使长江中下游地区夏季降水偏少（多）。

The impact of different height and different seasons temperature in the Tibetan Plateau on the precipi- tation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was discussed based on the reanalyzed information of 30 years monthly temperature field and height field of the NCEP / NCAR from year 1980 to 2009 and precipitation data froml60 stations in China. The result showed that there was a negative correlation between the winter average temperature in Tibetan Pla- teau and summer precipitation in the region of middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River; spring average temper- atures was negatively correlated with summer precipitation in the southern part of the region but it passively cor- related with summer precipitation in the southern part of the region, and the correlation between Plateau winter temperature and precipitation was more numerous than spring temperature. A warm （cold） winter in Tibetan Pla- teau, the western Pacific subtropical high will be northward （southward） in the geopotential height field, which makes less （much） rainfall in the corresponding summer of second year in the region of middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.