20世纪末中国中东部耕地扩张对表面气温影响的模拟

Simulated effects of agricultural development on surface air temperature over Central and Eastern China in the late 20th century

利用WRF模式,通过4个21年（1980-2000年）的模拟实验,研究了20世纪末中国中东部耕地扩张对表面气温的影响。控制实验分析发现WRF模式能够捕捉温度场的空间格局,模拟与观测的季节平均温度场的相关系数为0.91~0.99（P〈0.001）,但模拟温度比观测温度系统性偏低2~3℃。控制实验与敏感实验对比分析发现,东北区和中部区的毁林和毁草开荒具有降温效应,冬季平均降幅约为-0.41℃,居四季之首,主要是由地表反照率增加,净短波辐射减少,感热通量随之减少所致;东南区的毁林开荒具有升温效应,夏季温度升幅最大,平均升幅为0.14℃,主要原因是地表粗糙度减小,湍流减弱,热量在近地层集聚,难以扩散。农业扩张的升、降温效应主要出现在局地,对区域温度变化的影响甚微,一方面是因为农业扩张占区域面积份数甚小,另一方面是因为升、降温效应在区域平均过程中相互抵消。

We studied the effects of agricultural development on surface air temperature over Central and Eastern China in the late 20th century by performing four long-term （1980-2000） simulations using the Weather Forecast and Research （WRF） model. The four simulations used exactly the same settings except for the land use and land cover. One simulation referred as control simulation used the satellite-based land use and land cover data of the early 1980s. The other three simulations used the satellite-based land use and land cover data of 2000 only for Northeast, Central and Southeast China. By comparing the seasonal mean temperature of control simulation to ground measurement of 1981-1990, we found that WRF model had a cooling bias of about 2-3 ℃; however, WRF model well reproduced the spatial pattern of seasonal mean temperature with the correlation coefficient of 0.91-0.99 （P 〈 0.001）. By comparing sensitive simulations with control simulation, we found that agriculture development resulted in significant changes of local temperature, but with large spatial differences and seasonal differences. In Northeast and Central China, the conversions from forest and grassland to cropland resulted in a cooling effect and the maximum cooling of about 0.41 ℃ occurred in winter. These land use conversions might enhance surface albedo and thereby reduced the surface net solar radiation; as a result, the surface sensible heat decreased and cooling occurred. In Southeast China, the conversion from forest to cropland led to a warming effect with the maximum being about 0.14 ℃ occurring in summer. The deforestation resulted in a fiat surface and, thereby, turbulence was suppressed. Then, due to the suppressed turbulence, surface sensible heat was mostly used to heating bottom air rather than emitting into upper air. As a result, the surface climate warming occurred. The abovementioned cooling and warming effects induced by agriculture development could be comparable locally to the climate background changes. However, these cooling and warming effects had very weak modifications on regional mean temperature. This result implicates that the agriculture development-induced cooling and warming effects merely occurred in the locality and had little impacts on regional temperature changes.