基于情景分析的中国大陆SO_2、NO_X排放清单预测研究

The emission inventories prediction of SO_2 and NO_X in China mainland based on scenario analysis

采用部门分析法预测基准能源情景(BES)、政策能源情景(PES)和强化政策能源情景(SPES)下中国大陆地区2015、2020年的能源消费需求,结合分部门、分燃料的SO2、NOX排放因子,以及污染控制措施加强导致的排放因子变化,建立2015、2020年SO2、NOX排放清单。结果表明,2015、2020年BES、PES、SPES下SO2、NOX排放量依次减小;在加强污染控制措施的背景下,2020年相比于2015年各情景的SO2、NOX排放量均下降;SO2、NOX排放量在经济部门的分布极不平衡,其中供电、工业部门对SO2、NOX排放量的贡献最大,两部门对SO2排放量的贡献率在80%以上,对NOX排放量的贡献率接近60%,是污染控制的关键部门。

The fuel consumption data of China mainland in 2015 and 2020under basic energy scenarios（BES）,policy energy scenarios（PES）,strengthen policy energy scenarios（SPES）were predicted by sectors analysis.The SO2 and NOXemission inventory was established base on the emission factors of different sectors and different fuel type,as well as the emission factors variation due to more strict pollution control measures.The result shows that：the emission of SO2 and NOXin 2015 and 2020decreased successively under the three different scenarios of BES,PES,SPES;the SO2 and NOXemission of different scenarios both declined in 2020 because the pollution control measures were strengthened;Uneven allocation of SO2 and NOXemission were found in different sectors,among which thermal power and industry were the main sources of SO2 and NOXemission,their contribution to SO2 emission was above 80%and to NOXemission was about 60%,thus they were the key sectors of pollution control.