GRA——FAHP模型的煤层底板突水危险性评价

Risk Assessment Model of Coal Floor Water-Irruption Based on GRA-FAHP

矿井水害一直是制约我国煤炭安全生产的重要隐患之一,对其进行准确的预测评价具有十分重要的理论意义和实用价值。本文根据煤层底板突水各影响因素之间的关系是灰色关系并且具有非线性特征的特点,建立了定量与定性指标为一体的煤层底板突水评价指标体系及等级划分标准。同时将灰色关联分析法(GRA)和模糊层次分析法(FAHP)相结合。构建了能真实反映影响因素与底板突水之间灰色关系和非线性关系的底板突水危险性评价模型,并应用模型对某典型工作面突水危险性等级进行了评价,可为今后煤层底板突水预测评价的研究提供一定的借鉴和依据。

Mine water disaster has always been a seriously hidden danger of the coal mine production.Therefore,accurately predicting and evaluating has important theoretical significance and practical value.In this paper,according to the characteristics that the relationship among various influencing factors of coal floor waterirruption is grey and nonlinear,establishing the coal floor water-irruption evaluation index system and grading standards integrating the quantitative and qualitative indicators.At the same time,combining grey relational analysis method （GRA） and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP）,coal floor water-irruption risk assessment model is set up,which can truly reflect the grey relationship and nonlinear relationship among influence factors.Then,applying it to evaluate water-irruption risk grading in a typical working face.This method can provide reference and basis for the research on predicting and evaluating the coal floor water-irruption in the future.