中西部区域人口红利的演进趋势及其经济增长逻辑——以成都市为例

The Midwest Regional Evolution Trend of the Demographic Dividend and Its Logic of Economic Growth:In Chengdu,for Example

在创新性地细分人口红利为"普通型人口红利"和"核心型人口红利"的基础上,通过广泛使用"六普"数据建立成都市人口模型,得出人口红利——经济增长机制的成都逻辑:(1)静态数据显示成都一次红利窗口假性关闭,但劳动力回流趋势表明潜在一次人口红利期间实际大幅延长;同时"核心型人口红利"的挖掘和培养是成都开启二次人口红利期的钥匙。(2)政策牵引下成都从粗放型向集约型发展趋势明显,产业发展正逐步从劳动密集型向资本、技术密集型转变,但劳动密集型仍是当前产业发展的重要特征。对此的理论解释是:在国家实施东部区域先发展战略的作用下,农民工大量流向东部区域,造成中西部区域人口红利窗口暂时关闭。由此预测,在西部大开发等区域政策指引下,随着农民工向中西部回归的趋势的形成,中西部区域人口红利窗口将得到大幅度扩展,并对产业结构转变带来巨大影响。

In innovative segment demographic dividend is “normal population dividend ”and“demographic dividend”core type,on the basis of widely used by “six data ”model population of Chengdu,it is concluded that the demographic dividend-economic growth mechanism of Chengdu logic：（1）pseudo static data showed a dividend in Chengdu window closed,but the labor backflow trend shows that potential actual significantly prolong a demographic dividend period; At the same time, “demographic divi-dend”core type mining and training is the key to the second demographic dividend period in Chengdu. （2） the policy traction under Chengdu from extensive to intensive development trend,industry development is gradually shift from labor-intensive to capital and technology intensive,labor-intensive is an important characteristic of current industrial development. Theoretical ex-planation is：in the eastern countries implement regional development strategy first ,under the action of a large number of migrant workers to eastern regions,from the Midwest regional demographic dividend window closed temporarily. This prediction,in areas such as west development policy,with the formation of the trend of migrant workers return to the central and western regions,the Midwest regional demographic dividend window will be greatly extended ,and the industrial structure changes bring huge impact.