企业家信心与宏观经济波动

Confidence and Macroeconomic Fluctuation: An Analysis Based on the DSGE Model

利用企业家信心和宏观经济数据,通过构建一个包含信心的DSGE模型对信心影响宏观经济波动的作用机制进行了分析。结果表明:信心对宏观经济具有显著的影响;信心对产出、投资和就业的影响存在一定的滞后性;技术冲击能很好的解释短期(一年以内)的经济波动,但是对中长期的经济波动解释能力不足,而信心冲击则是对短期经济波动缺乏解释能力,但是对中长期经济波动的解释却要比技术冲击好。

In this paper, we formulate a DSGE model driven by confidence to analyze the mechanism of confidence effect of the macroeconomic fluctuation. The results show that confidence has significant effects on the macro economy; that confidence affects GDP, investment and labor with a delay; and that the technology shock can explain well the short-term economic fluctuations rather than the long-term economic fluctuations. And the long-term economic fluctuations can be best explained by confidence shock.