区域旅游发展规划实施效果实证分析——以《北部湾旅游发展规划》广西区为例

An Empirical Analysis on Implementing Effect of Regional Tourism Development Plan——Taking Beibu Gulf Tourism Development Plan in Guangxi as an Example

以2009-2013年面板数据为依据,利用区域经济学和统计学方法,从国内、入境和总体旅游收入的面板数据,对《北部湾旅游发展规划》广西区4个中心城市的实施效果进行了实证分析。结果发现,2009-2013年这5年间,北部湾广西区中心城市的旅游业发展的政策实施效果是十分良好的,但整个地区增长速度逐年放缓的趋势十分明显,特别是2013年,整个地区以及单个城市的发展速度均未达到规划所要求。针对存在的问题,文章从推进客源共享、旅游业均衡发展和调整目标三个方面提出了相关建议。

Based on the panel data from 2009 to 2013, and by the regional economics and statistics methods, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the implementing effect of Guangxi＇s four central cities under Beibu Gulf Tourism Development Plan from the panel data of domestic, foreign, and total tourism incomes. It is found that the implementing effect of tourism development policy in Guangxi＇s central cities in Beibu Gulf is very good from 2009— 2013, but it is very obvious that the growth speed in the whole region is gradually slowing, especially in 2013 the developing speeds in the whole region and in individual cities did not reach the required planning. Based on the existing problems, the paper thus puts forwards suggestions from promoting sharing of tourist sources and tourism balanced development, and adjusting tourism developing targets.